FIRST BOX OFFICE: Breaking Dawn #1 Again, The Muppets #2, Happy Feet #3, Arthur Christmas #4, Hugo #5

WEDNESDAY 4 PM: My sources are giving me these early estimates for today’s movie openings and for the 5-day Thanksgiving holiday. Already it’s looking like some of the new family fare won’t speed out of the theatrical gate, leaving a clear path for Summit Entertainment’sholdover Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 to win the weekend derby. Hollywood will have conniptions if the North American box office slump keeps continuing. Meanwhile, The Weinstein Co is platforming its Oscar-buzzed My Week With Marilyn today in 123 theaters and The Artist in 4 locations tomorrow. Refined numbers and full analysis later: 1. Twilight Saga’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 (Summit) Week 2 [4,066 Theaters] Wednesday $13M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $60M 2. The Muppets (Disney) NEW [3,440 Theaters] Wednesday $7.2M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $45M 3. Happy Feet Two (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,606 Theaters] Wednesday $3M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $18M 4. Arthur Christmas (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,376 Theaters] Wednesday $3M, Estimated5-Day Holiday $17.5M 5. Hugo (Paramount) NEW [1,277 Theaters] Wednesday $1.6M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $10.5M